Excerpts: “Consider: For every baby born nowadays in developed countries, more than nine are being born in the emerging markets and the developing world” (p. 12).

“The most vibrant economies in 2030 will be those that manage to take advantage of the dynamic contributions of immigrants while at the same time taking care of those who are hurt by the constant transformation of the economy” (p. 40).

Louis D. Brandeis, the astute American Progressive reformer of the early twentieth century, once predicted that ‘we can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can’t have both’” (p. 75).

“’Water is the most overused, abused, and underpriced resource in the world, and a large fraction of it is not renewable or is returned [to the watershed] undrinkable,’ notes my Penn engineering colleague Noam Lior” (p. 139).

“By 2030, more and more cities will experience a similar bifurcation between the areas inhabited by the upwardly mobile, highly educated professionals and those home to the functionally illiterate, who make up about 15 percent of the adult population” (p. 144).

“But perhaps the most visionary action taken by Chattanooga officials and their private backers was to invest in a citywide high-speed fiber-optic Internet network, the first in any American city (fewer than two hundred have built one)” (p. 145).

“All in all, there are 1.5 billion people who own or share a cellphone and must relieve themselves in the open or go to a shared outhouse” (p. 152).

“One of the biggest contributors to climate change is the clothing industry. Estimates indicate that is responsible for about 8 percent of total carbon emissions. That’s more than international flights and maritime shipping combined” (p. 170).

“The incremental approach cannot work for you unless you’re open to recognizing when and where you went wrong. Stay on the lookout for the piece of feedback that doesn’t fit your model of reality, then take it seriously and change course accordingly. It’s called ‘updating your priors’ – being willing to incorporate new information as you proceed” (p. 230).

“Consider how problematic it is to stubbornly continue down the same path even when faced with evidence that what you’re doing is not working. This unhelpful approach is called the ‘escalation of commitment,’ a term coined by the Berkeley psychologist Barry Staw. In simple terms, it means that when faced with negative outcomes, you double down on your decision-making—either through rationalization or self-justification—even though it will only lead to more negative outcomes. The option of changing course and thus producing a desirable outcome never crosses your mind. It falls squarely in your blind spot” (p. 230).

“This is what keeping your options open is all about. Never make decisions that run you into a corner, with no escape route. Never do anything that precludes a lateral move. Avoid making decisions that are irreversible or costly to reverse. Invest in real options, which are similar to financial options in that they increase in value the larger uncertainly looms” (p. 233).

“The bottom line is that the more we focus on opportunities rather than downsides, the greater our chances of adapting successfully to the challenges of 2030. As Winston Churchill once put it, ‘The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity, while the optimist sees opportunity in every difficulty’” (p. 234).

Guillen, Mauro F. (2020). 2030: How Today’s Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything. New York: St. Martin’s Press.